Has Romney Detoured Away From Ohio?

Being an Ohio native, we always believe that Ohio is “the heart of it all.” This election cycle, that saying is more true than ever. That is, until you actually fill in the electoral map based on the current polling numbers.

Of course Ohio is important, and I continue to hope, fight and work for a Romney victory in Ohio. However, with poll numbers showing that Obama is ahead in Ohio, we have to ask, “is the campaign lost for Romney?”

Republicans and right-leaning independents, I am thrilled to announce for you: the short answer is “no.”

The longer answer is “absolutely not.”

A path for Mitt Romney without Ohio – Sara Marie Brenner’s electoral map

The more detailed answer is addressed with this map, thanks to Real Clear Politics. When accounting for all of the toss-up states based on the current averages of the poll numbers in those states, Romney wins with 273 electoral votes if he wins the red and pink states on the map. Obama can win Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Iowa and still lose the race if Romney can carry the day in Colorado, Michigan, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida.

Romney and Ryan are practically living in Ohio. Governor Kasich recently joked that they may be here enough to pay income tax. They have not given up on Ohio, and undoubtedly will not; and, there are ways that they can still win Ohio, especially if the Republican theory about early voting comes to fruition. While the Democrats lead in early voting and absentees, Republicans are targeting unlikely voters for their early and absentee votes while Democrats are targeting likely voters. This simply means that the Democrats are cannibalizing their Election Day turnout. I explained this thoroughly in my October 16, 2012 column for HumanEvents.com.

Even Sen. Rob Portman has stated that Romney could win without an Ohio victory. He also points out that the momentum is behind Romney in Ohio, a statement that I fully support given what I see on the ground here.

My intent is not to diminish the importance of Ohio. With an Ohio victory, Romney can lose another toss-up state and still will the election. Rather, my map demonstrates that Romney’s popularity has grown to be so diverse and deep that Romney can be the first Republican to win the White House without Ohio. He has closed the gap with women. As Americans say they would want to see “big change” if Obama has a second term, Romney is criss-crossing Ohio today saying that he would bring “change” as President. The ground game in Ohio, especially the Election Day Task Force, are huge advantages for Romney, despite what the lame stream media would try to tell us about a supposed Obama-advantage on the ground — it simply is not true. The Republicans and the Romney campaign in Ohio are organized, focused, active, energized and passionate about a Romney victory.

Romney has opportunities to win Ohio, and boost his electoral total. If we remain vigilant and focused through Election Day, Romney will win the Presidency, win Ohio and have a large electoral victory that a liberal lawsuit fiesta will be unable to penetrate.


  1. Nicely written article. I just don’t understand why people are not voting for Romney. The Detroit News said ‘Thanks for the bailout’ to Obama but endorsed Romney. The facts coming to light every day regarding Benghazi show that the White House was aware of what was going on and did nothing. The Delphi fiasco. Solyndra. A123. Solar Trust of America. Bright Source. LSP Energy. The Keystone Pipeline. And the list continues. And yet, people like what Obama is doing. I don’t understand.

  2. I agree Steve — it’s perplexing as to why Romney doesn’t have a bigger lead (or why Obama doesn’t have a lower favorability rating). But then the liberal media continues to pound Romney and the perpetual lies against him make less politically minded folks confused and immobile. I believe that the Romney/Obama gap will widen as we get closer to election day as independents will need to make their choice. And with or without Ohio, I believe Romney/Ryan will be victorious!

  3. My data shows a good Ohio win for Romney.

  4. I am seeing a good Romney win here in Stark Co.

  5. As much as I distrust the polls, Romney is now ahead by several points in PA and, moved even with Obama in WI, and is within a point in MI. Ohio may no longer be the key to victory…but victory would still be nice.

    With that said, until Obama garners at least 50% in the polls, Ohio is still very much in play…undecideds generally go for the challenger 2-1 historically.

  6. I work in Silicon Valley. By your definition one of the most “over taxed, over regulated” places in the world. Why is everyone here so wealthy? And why is the local economy and local business thriving?

    In science when you develop a thesis and then evidence presents it self that is counter to your original theory you must alter your idea. I guess political ideologies don’t work the same way.

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